Excess Winter Mortality

Excess Winter Mortality - another "Y2K" factor, but with a bitter twist !

We're all too familiar with the propaganda of potential catastrophes when computer systems crash all over the nation as they click over to 1 Jan 2000. But another catastrophe of an altogether different order awaits us the very next day - 2 Jan. It's termed "EWM" and no one is telling us about it, especially not Government.

Excess Winter Mortality i.e. the excess of deaths over non-winter months, shows that EWM deaths related to cold and winter in 1996/97 was 49,000 with men suffering and dying more than women. This means 49,000 more British citizens died than might be expected purely because of the cold weather.

The UK with its low pension payment levels and cold winter payments benefiting women more than men does not compare well with the rest of Europe where the death rate from cold is far less. The number of deaths in the winter of 1996/97 of 49,000 pensioners compares badly with the previous 3-year average of 31,000 deaths.

EWM rate per 1,000 of the population [statistics source : Population Trends 90,  ONS, p13, Table 1]

Ironically, celebrating the New Year was the last memory for many EWM victims. 2 January had the highest incidence of mortality over the period with 2,643 deaths on that one day. That day proved to be the pinnacle for the death rate that gathered momentum in the last week in December but had subsided by the first week of February.

Because of their greater longevity (approximately 3 times as many female reach their 80^th birthday than do men) 60% of deaths were confined to the upper age brackets i.e. over 80 years old and were therefore female. However, as the table above shows, the probability of dying of cold is significantly greater if you are a man.

The causes of death were overwhelmingly due to either respiratory or circulation problems.

Given that the majority of deaths occur in a 3 week period it is perhaps worthy of serious consideration for electricity and or heating generally to be available free of charge to those most at risk in this very short, but deadly, 3 week period.

Comment : What are the government doing about this ?